Konversatorium on Friday, September 27, 2013 - 10:30

Regression models play a key role in many application domains for analyzing or predicting a quantitative dependent variable based on one or more independent variables. Automated approaches for building regression models are typically limited with respect to incorporating domain knowledge in the process of selecting input variables (also known as feature subset selection). Other limitations include the identification of local structures, transformations, and interactions between variables. The contribution of this paper is a framework for building regression models addressing these limitations. The framework combines a qualitative analysis of relationship structures by visualization and a quantification of relevance for ranking any number of features and pairs of features which may be categorical or continuous. A central aspect is the local approximation of the conditional target distribution by partitioning 1D and 2D feature domains into disjoint regions. This enables a visual investigation of local patterns and largely avoids structural assumptions for the quantitative ranking. We describe how the framework supports different tasks in model building (e.g., validation and comparison), and we present an interactive workflow for feature subset selection. A real-world case study illustrates the step-wise identification of a five-dimensional model for natural gas consumption. We also report feedback from domain experts after two months of deployment in the energy sector, indicating a significant effort reduction for building and improving regression models.  

 Many application domains deal with multi-variate data that consists of both categorical and numerical information. Small-multiple displays are a powerful concept for comparing such data by juxtaposition. For comparison by overlay or by explicit encoding of computed differences, however, a specification of references is necessary. In this paper, we present a formal model for defining semantically meaningful comparisons between many categories in a small-multiple display. Based on pivotized data that are hierarchically partitioned by the categories assigned to the x and y axis of the display, we propose two alternatives for structure-based comparison within this hierarchy. With an absolute reference specification, categories are compared to a fixed reference category. With a relative reference specification, in contrast, a semantic ordering of the categories is considered when comparing them either to the previous or subsequent category each. Both reference specifications can be defined at multiple levels of the hierarchy (including aggregated summaries), enabling a multitude of useful comparisons. We demonstrate the general applicability of our model in several application examples using different visualizations that compare data by overlay or explicit encoding of differences.